2026 Tax Season Update: Why Refunds Are Trending Higher Under the OBBBA

Now that we are settling into the rhythm of the 2026 tax season, the initial data from the IRS paints an interesting picture. If you have been hearing chatter about larger refunds this year, the numbers back it up—mostly. The average refund has climbed to $2,476, a solid 14.2% jump from the $2,169 average we saw at this time in 2025.

However, seasoned observers might notice a gap. Many policymakers and pundits predicted an average bump closer to $1,000 due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). While an extra $300 in your pocket is nothing to sneeze at, it isn’t quite the windfall some expected. It is important to remember, though, that it is still early March. As more complex returns move through the pipeline, these averages often shift.

Regardless of the averages, the trend line is positive. The new provisions under the OBBBA are clearly moving the needle. Here is a look at exactly what is driving these changes and how it applies to your specific situation.

The OBBBA Provisions Boosting Refunds

This piece of legislation introduced several targeted deductions that are directly impacting tax liability for millions of Americans. If you qualify for these, you might see a significant difference in your bottom line.

  • Overtime Premium Pay Deduction: For many hourly workers, this is a game-changer. The "half" of your "time-and-a-half" pay (mandated by the FLSA) is now deductible. There are caps—$12,500 for single filers and $25,000 for married couples filing jointly—but for those putting in long hours, this provides real relief.

  • Tax-Free Tips: Service industry professionals in nearly 70 designated occupations can now deduct up to $25,000 of "qualified tips" annually. Note that married taxpayers must file jointly to claim this. Both the overtime and tips deductions begin to phase out at $150,000 MAGI ($300,000 for joint filers) and are available whether you itemize or take the standard deduction.

  • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: If you bought a new, U.S.-assembled vehicle for personal use after 2024, the interest on that loan (up to $10,000) is now deductible. The loan must be secured by the vehicle and cannot be a personal loan from a relative. This benefit phases out starting at $100,000 MAGI ($200,000 for joint filers).

  • Enhanced Standard & Senior Deductions: The standard deduction has been robustly adjusted to $31,500 for married couples and $15,750 for singles. Furthermore, there is a new "Senior Bonus" of $6,000 for taxpayers 65 and older, which applies regardless of whether you itemize. Note that high-income seniors will see this bonus phase out starting at $75,000 MAGI ($150,000 joint).

  • Expanded Child Tax Credit: The credit has bumped up to $2,200 per child. While helpful, it retains income limits, with full availability capped at $400,000 for joint filers and $200,000 for others.

  • A Higher SALT Cap: Homeowners in high-tax states can breathe a little easier. The State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction limit has quadrupled from $10,000 to $40,000 ($20,000 for married filing separately). However, earners with MAGI over $500,000 will see this cap phase back down.

Hidden Factors Affecting Your Refund

Beyond the new law, there are structural reasons why refunds are trending up—some intentional, some accidental.

  • Withholding Lag: Because many of these tax cuts were passed mid-year or retroactively, payroll withholding tables didn't update immediately. This means many employees effectively overpaid taxes out of every paycheck last year, resulting in a larger lump sum refund now.

  • Inflation Adjustments: Brackets and provisions were adjusted for inflation, which helps prevent "bracket creep" where cost-of-living raises inadvertently push you into a higher tax tier.

  • Refundable Adoption Credit: A portion of the Adoption Tax Credit (up to $5,000) is now refundable, meaning eligible families can receive that money even if they owe zero tax.

A Note on Processing Delays

While the refund news is generally positive, the administrative side is facing headwinds. The IRS has reported a workforce reduction of 25% since January 2025. Combined with a backlog of returns and the complexity of implementing the OBBBA changes, the agency is under strain. Current stats show a slight dip in returns processed (down 3.1%) compared to this time last year.

If you haven't filed yet because you are worried about navigating these new rules, don't let the complexity paralyze you. Our firm has spent months dissecting the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. We know exactly how to calculate the phase-outs for the auto loan deduction and how to properly document your overtime pay. We are here to ensure you don't leave money on the table. Contact us today to get your 2025 return filed accurately and efficiently.

Share this article...

Want our best tax and accounting tips and insights delivered to your inbox?

Sign up for our newsletter.

I confirm this is a service inquiry and not an advertising message or solicitation. By clicking “Submit”, I acknowledge and agree to the creation of an account and to the and .
Let us take your tax and small business needs off your hands today.